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Tag Archives: Insight

Por qué Analíticas es la respuesta para el Director Financiero moderno?

Como bien dijo Gordon Gekko, en la película Wall Street (1987), “La mercancía más valiosa que conozco es la información”. Afortunadamente para las compañías de comunicaciones y sus Directores Financieros, no carecen de esta “mercancía valiosa”, la cual pueden aprovechar mediante analíticas.
Descubre cómo los Directores Financieros pueden aprovechar sus datos mediante analíticas de telecomunicaciones, para tomar mejores decisiones que impulsen el crecimiento y mitiguen los riesgos, viendo la grabación del webinar llamado “No te quedes atrás: una guía de Directores Financieros para aprovechar las analíticas avanzadas”, que tuvo lugar el 14 de diciembre.

But let’s go back a moment.
The world of telecommunications, as we know it, is evolving and, with it, the role of Financial Directors is also undergoing a drastic change. Its role is no longer limited to focusing solely on past performance, numbers and financial information, but the mandate seems almost universally exceeded, and the CFO also needs to provide information on where the business is going and how fast it is doing.
The participation of the Financial Directors in the corporate strategy has also become an integral part of the work, since they now have the capacity and the mandate to contribute directly to the business management, as well as to review and report on their performance. All this means that today’s Financial Directors must be more strategic and need to ensure that they are more aligned with the strategic imperatives of the business, and this requirement places the Financial Director at the focal point not only for the presentation of financial reports, but also also for management reports, in addition to maintaining a solid and healthy balance sheet.
But, as we know, the dynamic nature of the telecommunications environment poses multiple obstacles to the modern CFO, which includes – but is not limited to – the following:

_ CFOs today must ensure that they are able to increase the margin and return on profits.
It is a well-known fact that ARPUs have been steadily declining in all regions of the world and, together with the slow growth of revenues, is leading to a steady erosion of margins since 2010 in most regions. In the midst of these challenges, the Financial Directors’ mandate to increase margins and profit performance is increasingly critical and difficult.

_ Organizational attempts to increase revenue are deflating due to errors and leaks.
Addressing Income Leaks is a major concern for telecommunication operators, and it is fast becoming a mandate for Financial Directors, considering that currently most of the RA teams report to them. Given that Income Leaks have a direct impact on revenue growth, the CFO’s role now is to take a proactive stance in the treatment of any error or loss.

_Evaluate the risks and develop measures to prevent security breaches.
Like revenue leaks, security breaches and telecommunications fraud can cost operators a lot, and is an obstacle to ensuring that CFOs maintain a solid balance sheet. $ 38.1 billion (USD) were lost due to fraud in 2015 and, although the number is decreasing, Telcos continue to feel the impact of losing money due to fraud, and the task of resolving this lies with the Chief Financial Officer.

_Increase Capital Expenditures during a period of decreased income.
A recent survey conducted by TMForum, led by Subex, revealed the following conclusions:
– 1 in 3 operators does not measure the returns on investment in CAPEX.
– 77% of respondents consider that the inappropriate use of assets leads to an increase in costs.
– 55% of respondents believe that network planning is based on assumptions.
– 64% believe that capex planning is driven by technology and not by business objectives.
On the other hand, CSP’s global revenues decreased by 5.3% for the year ended March 2016, while gas responded to volatility and speed of change
The signs indicate that revenues from traditional services will stabilize in the next 10 years. In fact, some analysts anticipate that revenues from traditional communications services will be reduced by 50% from current levels by 2025. This means that CSPs must embrace the digital revolution and can no longer be stupid but must be seen as smart tubes By offering digital services and being seen as DSPs or even LSPs (Lifestyle Service Providers) to capital increased, raising capital expenditures (capex / revenue) to 19.8% for the year.

_Increased competition, even from OTT players.
According to Ovum, it is expected to cost the Telcos a combined total of $ 386 billion between 2012 and 2018.

_Responder to volatility and speed of change.
The signs indicate that revenues from traditional services will stabilize in the next 10 years. In fact, some analysts anticipate that, by 2025, revenues from traditional communications services will be reduced by 50% from current levels. This means that CSPs must embrace the digital revolution, and can no longer remain dumb channels, but should be seen as smart tubes that offer digital services, and be seen as DSPs or even as LSPs (Lifestyle Service Pviders).
And the challenges do not end there! Today, CFOs need to devote more time and effort to managing the future rather than residing in the past and, therefore, need to further analyze the analytical data to connect the dots and predict the future. To their advantage, Telecommunications Financial Managers possess unprecedented amounts of data, from multiple sources, including customer data and network data, and can take advantage of this data through the power of telecommunications analytics.
If taken advantage of in the right way, through the application of advanced analytics, Telecommunications Financial Managers will be able to address the challenges they face and achieve business results that align with their agenda, through the generation of actionable telecommunications knowledge. CFOs can have a 360 degree view of their business context and identify and even proactively predict problems, opportunities and threats, and help them address them before internal audits. For these reasons, it has now become the mandate of the CFO to conduct analytics for both strategic and operational decision making.
Through the generation of Telecommunications Knowledge, an Advanced Analytics Solution can help Financial Managers to meet the growing expectations placed on changes in their roles, enabling them to:
_Proactively predict and direct resources to counteract risks and take advantage of opportunities .
_ Reduce uncertainty by anticipating disruptive changes, and respond and adapt to create growth opportunities.
– Predicting Income and Fraud Leaks to face risks proactively.
_Predending redundancies and reassigning budgets to reduce and control costs.
_Increase the impact of pricing decisions and promotions through optimization.
The Advanced Telecommunications Analytics solution has the scope to help the Financial Directors of telecommunications operators to meet business objectives drastically, and we have even seen or, better said, helped a Level 1 CSP, based in North America. , to save costs, simply by helping them resolve disputes. Through the generation of telecommunication knowledge, the association helped the CSP improve its ratio of predicting and resolving disputes to 9x, which in turn helped them save up to millions of dollars. This is the power of the Advanced Telecommunications Analytics solution.
For more information on how CFOs can take advantage of telecommunication analytics to maximize revenue and mitigate risks, see the webinar’s recording “Do not Stay Back: A Guide for Financial Managers to Take Advantage of Advanced Analytics,” on March 16. February.

Why Analytics is the Answer for the Modern Day CFO?

As Gordon Gekko from the movie Wall Street (1987), rightly said, “The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” Fortunately for telecom operators and their Chief Financial Officers, they possess no dearth of this ‘valuable commodity’, which they can leverage through telecom analytics

Find out how CFOs can leverage their data through telecom analytics, by gener to make better decisions to drive growth and mitigate risks by viewing the recording of the webinar on ‘Don’t Get Left Behind – a CFO Guide to Leveraging Advanced Analytics’, which took place on December 14th .

But let’s take a step back for a moment.

The telecom world as we know it is evolving, and with it, the role of the CFOs has also been undergoing a drastic change. His role is no longer confined to be solely focused on past performance, on the numbers, and on financial reporting, but the mandate seems almost universally to have been exceeded, with the CFO needing to also provide information about where the business is going and how quickly it is getting there. [1]

The CFOs involvement in corporate strategy has also become an integral part of the job, with CFOs now having the ability and the mandate to contribute directly to the direction of the business as well as reviewing and reporting on its performance1. This all means that today’s CFOs need to be more strategic and need to ensure that there is better alignment with strategic business imperatives and this requirement puts the CFO at the focal point for not just financial reporting but also managerial reporting, along with his core objective of maintain a strong and healthy balance sheet.

But, as we know, the dynamic nature of the telecom environment places multiple hurdles in the face of the modern day CFO, which include, but are not restricted to the following:

  • CFOs today need to ensure that they are able to increase margin and earnings performance
    • It is a well-known fact that ARPUs have been steadily declining in every region of the world, and coupled with slow revenue growth is leading to a steady erosion of margins since 2010 in most regions[2]. In the midst of these challenges, the mandate of CFOs to increase margins and earnings performances in becoming increasingly critical, and difficult.
  • Organisational attempts at growing revenues are being deflated by errors and leakage
    • Addressing Revenue leakages are a major concern for telecom operators[3], and is quickly becoming a CFO mandate considering currently most RA teams ultimately report to the CFO[4]. Considering that revenue leakages have a direct impact on revenue growth, it is now the role of the CFO to take a proactive stance in addressing any errors and leakages.
  • Assessing risks and developing measure to prevent security breaches
    • Like Revenue Leakages, security breaches and telecom fraud can cost operators heavily, and is an obstacle in the way of ensuring CFOs maintain a strong balance sheet. $38.1 Billion (USD) was lost to fraud in 2015, and though the number is decreasing YoY, telcos are still feeling the pinch of losing cash to fraud, and the task to resolve this lies with the CFO.
  • Increasing Capital Expenses during a period of decreasing revenues
    • A recent survey that was conducted by TMForum led by Subex revealed the following findings:
      • 1 in 3 operators do not measure returns on CAPEX investment
      • 77% of the respondents believed that inadequate asset utilization leads to increase in costs
      • 55% of the respondents believed that network planning is based on guesses
      • 64% believed that capex planning is driven by technology and not business objectives

Moreover Global CSP revenues declined by 5.3% for the year ended March 2016, while capex increased, pushing up capital expenses (capex/revenues) to 19.8% for the year.[5]

  • Increasing competition, even from OTT players
    • Which according to Ovum, is expected to cost Telcos a total combined $386 billion between 2012 and 2018
  • Responding to the volatility and velocity of change
    • The signs are that revenues from traditional services will plateau over the next 10 years. Indeed, income from traditional communications services is anticipated by some analysts to decline by 50% from current levels by 2025. This means that CSPs need to embrace the digital revolution, and can no longer remain as dumb pipes but need to be seen as smart pipes by offering digital services and be seen as DSPs or even LSPs (Lifestyle Service Providers)

And the challenges don’t just end there! Today CFOs need to spend more time and effort managing the future rather than dwelling in the past, and hence need to take an even closer look at data analytics to connect the dots and to predict the future. To their advantage, telecom CFOs possess unprecedented quantities of data, from multiple sources including customer data and network data, and can leverage this data through the power of telecom analytics.

If leveraged in the right way, by applying advanced analytics, telecom CFOs will be able to address the challenges they are facing, and achieve business outcomes that align with their agenda, through the generation of actionable telecom insights. CFOs will possess the power to have a 360 degree view of their business context and identify and even predict issues, opportunities and threats proactively, and will help them address them before internal audits. For these reasons, it has now become the mandate of the CFO to drive analytics for both strategic and operational decision-making.

By generating Telecom Insights, an Advanced Analytics Solution can help CFOs to meet the increasing expectations placed on their changing roles by enabling them to:

  • Proactively predict and direct resources to counter risks and leverage opportunities
  • Reduce uncertainty by predicting disruptive changes and respond and adapt to create growth opportunities
  • Predict revenue leakages and fraud to proactively address risks
  • Predict redundancies and reallocate budgets to reduce and control costs
  • Increase impact of pricing and promotion decisions through optimization

Advanced Telecom Analytics has the scope of helping CFOs of telecom operators meet business objectives drastically, and we have even witnessed, or rather helped a Tier 1 CSP, based in North America save costs by purely helping them resolve disputes. Through the generation of telecom insights, the partnership helped the CSP improve their hit ratio of predicting and addressing disputes to 9x, which in turn helped them save up to a few million dollars. Thus is the power of Advanced Telecom Analytics.

To find out more about how CFOs can leverage telecom analytics for revenue maximization and risk mitigation, view the recording of the webinar on ‘Don’t Get Left Behind – a CFO Guide to Leveraging Advanced Analytics’, on December 14th.

[1] http://www.ey.com/gl/en/issues/managing-finance/the-dna-of-the-cfo—perspectives-on-the-evolving-role—the-cfo-s-contribution

[2] https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/news/strategy-analytics-press-releases/strategy-analytics-press-release/2015/01/23/global-trends-for-mobile-operators-show-stagnant-revenues-and-declining-margins#.WD-iJeZ9600

[3] https://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/global-revenue-assurance-survey/Documents/global-revenue-assurance-survey.pdf

[4] https://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/global-revenue-assurance-survey/Documents/global-revenue-assurance-survey.pdf

[5] https://www.ovum.com/research/communications-service-provider-csp-revenue-capex-tracker-1q16/

Customer Analytics: Walking in the Customers Shoes

In the first blog in this series on customer analytics, the technique of Customer Journey Mapping (CJM) was discussed as a way to follow how customers move from one touch point to the next, and track their emotional well-being during those interactions. In the last blog I described how using a persona to represent a group of customers would allow marketing to get a better understanding of customers. In this blog I will explore how Customer Journey maps can be created for persona to visualize an idealized journey for the group represented. This is now becoming a well-accepted technique for not only improving user experience in software design, but also in the design of products, digital and conventional marketing channels, architecture and many other areas.

There are two basic approaches for creating persona. One is to base the persona on in-depth research of the customers within a market segment, and the other is to base the persona on intuition, sometimes referred to as a provisional persona. In reality, it makes most sense to use a combination of research and intuition, and then verify the persona with those who have front line contact with customers. Generally customers belonging to a company’s biggest market segment would be targeted first and a primary persona is created to represent them. If the team creating the persona do not have direct knowledge of the customers in that segment then they will need to conduct research to understand the values and motivations of the group.

Once a persona has been defined then it’s possible to look at how the company would engage that persona in a sale, and the hope is that the persona would follow each engagement at every touchpoint, even long after they’ve made the purchase and are using the product. The framework for this is known as the Customer Lifecycle. There are many versions of this but they all share some basic stages, as described by Jim Sterne and Matt Cutler in a paper called “E-metrics, business metrics for the new economy

  • Reach: Trying to get the attention of the people we want to reach.
  • Acquisition: Attracting and bringing the reached person into the influence sphere of our organization. 
  • Conversion: When the people we reach or have a more established relationship with, decide to buy something from us.
  • Retention: Trying to keep the customers and trying to sell them more (cross-selling, up-selling).
  • Loyalty: We would like the customer to become more than a customer: a loyal partner and even a ‘brand advocate’ Moments of truth

This can be represented either horizontally or in a circular lifecycle type chart

The Customer Life Cycle – Source: E-Metrics Business Metrics for the New Economy by Jim Sterne and Matt Cutler

The persona journey describes how it’s anticipated that a particular persona would move through the lifecycle. It would describe the channels through which it’s expected they are made aware of a product, how it’s expected they would research the product and what would motivate them to make a decision to buy. Key points in the journey where customers decide whether to continue or abandon the process are known as ‘Moments of Truth’, a term coined by Jan Carlzon, the well-known CEO of SAS Airlines who turned the company around in just a couple of years.

Walking in the customers shoes in this way is not easy, and would normally be done as a workshop with representatives from across an organisation, but it’s an exercise that can provide many useful insights. Service quality gaps, cross channel alignment, ways to better engage customers and align internal teams are just a few of the many benefits that come from journey mapping. When idealised journey maps are compared with the actual journeys that customers take then many preconceived ideas about how customers see and engage with the company may get thrown out and fresh ways to engage, retain and acquire new customers be discovered.

In the next part of this customer analytics based series of blogs I will be looking at the security implications of big data and advanced customer profiling, and how regulators around the world are trying to protect an individual’s right to be treated equally by large corporations.

Plain Sailing on a Sea of Data

Running a business can be like sailing a ship.  It’s not enough to set a course and expect the ship to just get there.  The sea can be rough, the weather unpredictable, and just under the surface there may be hidden obstacles. Any number of problems can push you off course, or, at worst, sink your ship completely.  A sea of data washes around the business which can either drag you under, or carry you swiftly to your destination.  So what can you do to ensure a safe arrival at your destination?  The following checklist will help you get ready for your journey.

A strong ship

You will need a ship that can sail in all weathers, and has a reliable track record for sailing long distances.

Subex has a pedigree of providing enterprise strength software to the telecoms industry for over 20 years. Subex ROC can crunch billions of call records daily

A clear destination

Without an agreed destination your business will drift aimlessly and will eventually run aground.  By setting clear objectives everyone can work together to ensure the ship stays the course.

Subex consultants can help to plan for your voyage and set a course for you planned destination. Subex Analytics help to keep a business on course by using historic data to predict which direction a business is heading.

A good map

Your map is your business strategy, but this shouldn’t be set in stone.  A business strategy must adapt to the changing conditions and business leaders must remain vigilant to make course corrections when necessary.

Subex ROC provides has a modularised framework that can be quickly adapted to handle new challenges or changes in course.  The course to follow can be mapped out in KPIs that provide constant visual feedback to inform you if your business goes off course.

A navigator who knows the way

Pick the right currents your ship will be carried quickly to your destination, but getting caught by the wrong ones can set you miles off course.  A business embarking on a journey into the unknown needs an experienced navigator to guide the way.

Subex consultants have the experience to guide a corporation across open water or narrow straits of competition, regulatory requirements and market demands.

As soon as sailors began to navigate beyond the sight of land then they realised they needed more than just the stars to find their way. Compasses, Nautical maps, sextants and marine chronometers all advanced the quality of analytics available to navigators, but until radar, LORAN and GPS arrived in the late 20th century sailors still relied largely upon dead reckoning and gut instinct to find the way, and their journeys would often end tragically.  Now Subex analytics can provide the same kind of objective view of where a business is heading that GPS provides for sailors.  Subex analytics can see through the fog and turbulent waves of data that flood into an organisation and threaten to knock you off course.  Using advanced time series forecasting, correlation, what if modelling, and pin sharp visualisations Subex ROC can navigate through a sea of data and help to steer your business safely to its planned destination.

The Re-Emergence of Convergence

Operators and global industry forums continue to wrestle with the question of whether or not to merge their fraud and security teams/work-groups to cope better with criminals who are breaking in through IP-based networks in order to derive profit for themselves (or their causes), or just to wreak havoc and disruption on their “enemies”.  Fraudsters are not just partaking in the traditional crimes of bypass fraud, roaming, Dial Through, AIT/PRS, Call Selling fraud etc., but also the exciting new stuff…. Phishing, malware, spoofing, DDoS, Trojans etc.

One can be forgiven for thinking that fostering closer links between fraud and security domains is breaking new ground in terms of responding to the threats posed by 4G/LTE, NextGen, the continued growth of e/m-commerce and the proliferation of data passing over networks.   I guess it is a sign of my advancing years that I can’t help feeling that we have been here before…

15 years ago, when I was prepping for an interview for my first job in the fraud management arena, I was listening open-mouthed as a fraud expert was explaining to me the finer points of PBX Hacking.  Thinking back, two things were very clear:-

  1. The Operator in the UK already had a merged fraud and security group (which they later separated out, then subsequently re-merged again, by the way).
  2. The main advice to combat PBX Hacking was prevention, not detection… and that meant security prevention. The operator was keen to tell its business customers that they needed to physically lock away their PBX equipment, protect their passwords, switch off unnecessary/vulnerable services such as DISA/Voicemail, carry out security awareness training for switchboard operators, support staff, suppliers, use barring at switch or extension level, keep PBX call logging records to see hacking attempts before they succeed, shred old copies of internal directories, vet their security/cleaning staff, etc. etc.   The FMS only stepped in when all the prevention activities failed and the PBX was breached.  By the time that happened, operators were already losing money directly, if they were responsible for the switch, or indirectly if their customers were liable.  Customers may have been unwittingly facilitating the fraud by their lack of security awareness etc. but even so, if a small business – used to paying perhaps $1000 a month for calls, suddenly gets a bill for $20000, they are going to fight it, refuse to pay it or be unable to pay it.  The indirect cost to the operator of customer complaints, disputes, potential court cases, damage to the brand, bad publicity, negotiated settlements, debt write-off and churn etc. can cost far more than the original bill.  It was a lose/lose situation… unless you were the fraudster.

These days, with the emergence of 4G/LTE, IP-based Networks, perpetrators are still committing the same underlying crime for the same motives as before, but now they are breaking in through a host of different entry points, wearing better disguises, carrying bigger SWAG bags and using faster getaway vehicles.  In truth, many operators are struggling to keep up with the high number and seemingly unpredictable nature of these attacks.

Security teams are traditionally very good at preventing access to networks, but they are not perfect.  The pace at which network elements, components, interfaces and transactions are increasing is making it impossible for all the preventative measures to be in-situ from day one.  Not to mention the surfeit of off-the shelf tools that fraudsters can use to break in to more and more lucrative areas of daily commerce.

In practice, Prevention alone cannot succeed.  Detection, Analysis and Response are also essential elements of the fraud management cycle.

Cycle

So, my point is this…. security and fraud teams cannot operate in silos.  Security teams must continue to try and prevent malicious intrusion as much as possible.  That requires taking in a lot of real-time data from the access points, identifying the nature of the content and the data patterns and quickly blocking anything that looks dubious.  But when the intruder gets in (and they do in their numbers), that is when the fraud team can also play their part.

Whilst the security team controls corporate IT networks, how well can they police the mobile workers and the homeworkers, the tablet users, the App Store/Android Users etc.?  And if you think that profiling subscribers was difficult historically, how much harder is it when you can’t even define what a subscriber is, let alone track their behaviour.  In the new world, the relationship between account holder, subscriber and product/service is not always obvious.  Also, the billing relationships for transactions can be mind-boggling.  Couple this with the speed at which these transactions are taking place and the value of services and content being passed across a proliferation of bearers, and you have a minefield to negotiate.

This is where a good Fraud Management System can supplement an operator’s security tools.  An FMS must now be equipped to take in much larger volumes of data than before, in many different forms and process it much quicker.   Any reputable FMS vendor will now be offering solutions with large scale, flexible data handling tools (including probe / deep packet inspection events), internal/sales partner audit logs/feeds, inline service/transaction monitoring, exhaustive rules engines (real-time, in-line and statistical), subscriber grouping & profiling features, reference data including Hotlists/Blacklists, fraud and device “fingerprinting” capabilities, ID verification, alarm prioritisation and established, flexible workflows, with a range of analytics tools and visualisation features.  All these components – in the hands of an experienced and well-managed fraud operations outfit – will help to choke fraudsters and drive them out to look for easier targets.

So, in summary, don’t let the security guys take all the strain at the prevention stage.  Share the data, share the knowledge and spread the load to the fraud team for a more comprehensive response.

To get more information about Subex Fraud products please click here.

The Dark Side of the Moon

In discussing the 1969 Apollo Moon landing, Neil Armstrong once said “We tried very hard not to be overconfident, because when you get overconfident, that’s when something snaps up and bites you”.

Apart from the occasional lack of atmosphere, the overlap between being a Fraud Manager and being an Astronaut isn’t that obvious. However, the dangers of being overconfident very much apply to both roles and it is essential that a Fraud Manager never sits still and assumes that all risks are covered.

The life of a Fraud team is always hectic and it can be very difficult just to keep on top of all the alarms, reports and referrals coming your way. Finding time to take a step back and look at the full spectrum of fraud risks is not a luxury that many, if any, Fraud Managers have at their disposal.

Common fraud types such as Subscription Fraud, Bypass, IRSF and PBX Hacking generate a huge number of cases and can be difficult to investigate and take preventative action against. In fact, just those 4 fraud types alone keep many Fraud teams more than busy throughout the week.

This is quite understandable given the losses associated with these frauds. However, when you consider that there are more than 40 fraud types listed in the GSMA FF Manual, the potential for a Fraud team to end up exposed to some significant risks is clear.

Furthermore, it’s not just the fraud types which are not addressed that can present a problem. There is also the risk that one of your core frauds mutates and leaves you blindsided. If we take the example of Subscription Fraud, there are so many variants that it can be very difficult to keep track and ensure that you have the appropriate prevention and detection in place.

Insight is what you need to avoid major fraud risks being left on ‘The Dark Side of the Moon’.

One of the many benefits of Subex Insight is that it includes tools that help Fraud Managers to identify fraud risk areas that are not covered or where gaps exist in existing coverage. The highly flexible nature of Insight allows it to identify both high level risks (e.g. whole fraud types which are not addressed) and lower level issues (e.g.  Individual Fraud Analysts who are not working specific types of alarms).

Subex Insight will provide the confidence you need to get you covered.

To get more information about Subex Insight please click here.

Hindsight – the Superpower everybody possesses?

As a child, I dreamed of having a superpower. Invisibility, flying, incredible strength, teleporting – any would have been just fine, I wasn’t choosy! Unfortunately it didn’t take too long for me to realise I was not ‘on the list’ so I went to work for BT instead and started on the road to a career in Fraud Management!

Over 25 years later it suddenly became clear to me, as I watched events unfold in Brazil over the last two weeks, that I may have been wrong all along.  In fact I DID have a superpower. I was, in fact, “Hindsight Man”! Unfortunately my hindsight powers did seem to have limitations in that they only worked in connection with the performance of the England Football (Soccer) team – but you have to start somewhere! However, once I realised I may possess this power I quickly noticed that nearly everyone else I came into contact with also seemed to be blessed with this ability – and it is always completely accurate (20:20), right? A pretty useful Superpower for a fraud professional then!

Before investing in the cape and mask, I decided to do some further research on the subject of Hindsight.  So, what is hindsight?  It is defined as ‘the ability to understand, after something has happened, what should have been done or what caused the event’. As I delved deeper, I realised that I, as with many others, am most likely suffering from something psychologists call Hindsight Bias…. also known as the ‘Knew-it-all-along effect’.

It appears we humans have a tendency to suggest predictability even in events where there is little or no evidence to support the prediction prior to the event. Unfortunately, it gets worse….even where some evidence may be present in order to validate our ‘Hindsight’ we may change our recollections to support newly provided information. The level of memory distortion this involves is not just affected by whether there is a positive or negative outcome, but also the severity of the negative outcome. Dangerous Stuff!

So it looks like I may not possess the power of hindsight after all and looking at it from a Fraud Management perspective that may be a good thing. Hindsight, as we have seen, can be based on no factual evidence and, even where there is some basis in fact, is prone to a significant number of external factors that can have a hugely negative impact on our assessment/judgement.

No, it’s clear to me now, to be a better fraud professional I don’t need Hindsight – I need Insight!

Read about Subex Insight here.

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