Why the gap in NTN fraud guidance is a present-day risk, and what operators can do before a standard arrives

Date: 01 Oct 2026  |  Author: Harish Gangadhariah Devarahatti

IN BRIEF

GSMA’s Fraud and Security Group (FASG) publishes operational fraud and security guidance for every mobile generation from 2G to 5G, but, based on publicly available information, it has not yet published NTN-specific guidance. NTN services are launching commercially while telecom fraud losses reached $41.82 billion in 2025, according to the CFCA. Operators launching satellite services need a working fraud baseline now.

What is GSMA FASG, and does its guidance cover NTN?

GSMA’s Fraud and Security Group (FASG) is the standing industry body that turns 3GPP security architecture into operational fraud and security guidance, including filtering recommendations, correlation rules and threat modelling, for roaming and interconnect environments across every mobile generation from 2G through 5G.

Based on publicly available information, FASG has not yet published fraud or security guidance specific to non-terrestrial networks (NTN), and GSMA’s NTN Community materials do not reference an FASG NTN workstream. For operators, that means there is currently no industry-endorsed fraud baseline to configure satellite services against.

Why does the NTN fraud guidance gap matter now?

Telecom fraud losses were reported at $38.95 billion in 2023 and $41.82 billion in 2025, according to the Communications Fraud Control Association (CFCA) Global Fraud Loss Survey, an increase of nearly $3 billion in two years across schemes including IRSF (International Revenue Share Fraud), Wangiri, smishing and number spoofing. That trend was built entirely on terrestrial network fraud. NTN adds a new access layer without published industry guidance, at a moment when the industry’s overall loss curve is rising, not falling.

How quickly is NTN reaching commercial scale?

Industry fraud guidance has historically followed commercial deployment of a new access technology rather than preceding it. NTN is now on the same commercial trajectory that 2G through 5G followed:

  • Industry consensus. Coverage of MWC 2026 by S&P Global Market Intelligence described NTN as moving from hype to commercial reality, with 3GPP Release 19 cited as a key milestone for mass-market adoption.
  • Operator adoption. GSMA Intelligence data, cited in the same analysis, showed 118 mobile operators with satellite service partnerships by December 2025, 33 of them already live.
  • Regulatory approval. The US Federal Communications Commission granted AST SpaceMobile commercial authorisation for direct-to-device service in April 2026.
  • Standards-based roaming. Iridium’s 3GPP-based NTN Direct service completed a global roaming agreement with Deutsche Telekom IoT in September 2026, ahead of full commercial launch expected later in 2026.

Commercial deployment is proceeding on schedule. A published industry fraud framework for NTN is not.

What does the gap mean for operators launching NTN services?

  • No baseline to configure against. Every operator launching NTN or direct-to-device services in 2026 is doing so without an industry-endorsed fraud baseline, a gap it must close on its own or with a vendor.
  • A standard will come, later. Every prior access generation eventually received FASG guidance. Operators that define a working framework now will be better placed to shape and adopt it.
  • Exposure grows with time. Regulatory and reputational exposure compounds the longer the gap stays open, particularly as NTN services scale to consumer smartphones and critical IoT.

What should operators do before an NTN fraud standard is published?

  • Establish a working NTN fraud baseline now, extending the rule-based and machine-learning detection already proven across 2G to 5G, mobile money and IoT to satellite access.
  • Monitor the satellite partner leg as roaming. The NTN leg is typically settled as a roaming relationship, so apply roaming fraud controls to it from launch.
  • Keep rules configurable, so detection logic can be aligned with FASG guidance quickly once it is published.
  • Engage with the industry. Participate in GSMA’s NTN Community and FASG to help shape the eventual standard rather than waiting to adopt it.

How Subex approaches NTN fraud management

Subex has worked in telecom fraud management across successive access technologies and new services, including mobile money and IoT. It is applying the same rule and machine-learning foundations to non-terrestrial networks, so operators can launch satellite services with a working fraud baseline rather than wait for one.

The absence of an NTN fraud standard is not a reason to wait. It is the window in which operators set their own baseline.

About Subex

For over three decades, Subex Limited has helped communications service providers build resilient, intelligent, and future-ready digital businesses. As an AI-first company, Subex combines deep telecom expertise with intelligent systems to protect revenues, combat fraud, optimize partner ecosystems, and enable smarter decisions at scale—creating measurable value across every digital journey.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a GSMA fraud standard for non-terrestrial networks?

Based on publicly available information, not yet. GSMA’s Fraud and Security Group (FASG) publishes fraud and security guidance for 2G through 5G roaming and interconnect, but has not published NTN-specific guidance, and GSMA’s NTN Community materials do not reference an FASG NTN workstream.

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